By Ronald Boyd-MacMillan
Two features of the fall of Bashar-ar-al-Assad took everyone by surprise late in 2024. One was the sheer rapidity of the collapse of a half century of dynastic dictatorship. Thirteen days was all it took for Islamist rebels Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to leave their stronghold of Idlib and walk virtually unopposed into Damascus on December 8th. In a country that has seen roughly 600,000 dead in a civil war since 2011, the regime change was mercifully bloodless as Assad’s forces melted away as rapidly as their leader’s private plane left for Moscow. The second feature was the outburst of euphoria from most groups in society—including religious minorities—who are not normally keen to cheer Islamists into power.
Their optimism had some basis in fact. The victorious leader of HTS, one Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, was quick to assure Syrians that everyone’s rights would be respected, and assured representatives from the Druze and Christian communities in particular. When some rebels torched a Christmas tree in a public square they were rounded up, an apology was made, and Christmas lights twinkled through the festive period in cities like Aleppo and Damascus. Christians also know that HTS had a reputation for governing efficiently and fairly in Idlib for the past several years, remaining relatively tolerant of the Christians there, and did not hide that they decisively broke with Islamic State and Al Qaeda as far back as 2017.
Still, the dancing in the streets? Hopes that Syria will refuse to become an Islamic state? “You must understand how deep the darkness became here,” said a non-conformist pastor from Damascus, and in a nod to the past, was careful to insist his name should not be used. He continued, “In the deepest darkness, even the tiniest pin pricks of light must get celebrated.” He added,
“We got used to Islamic fighters raping our girls, burning our bibles, bulldozing our churches, so to see nothing like this going on now -yes we’ll celebrate!”
One of the hardest stories I ever wrote in the last fifteen years was of a Christian father who found his house surrounded one day by Islamic state fighters. “Bring out your daughter” they said, “and you can live.” He called out, “Let me fetch her” realizing that it was certain that his beloved twelve-year-old would be raped to death in front of his eyes. He told her what would happen, and said, “I will not allow you that fate. Let’s go to heaven now.” He assured her he would not be far behind. So, he shot his daughter to spare her a more harrowing death. Before he could turn the gun on himself the fighters rushed in, then backed off in awe. I met him some months later,
“How can you live with yourself?” I asked gently. “Some days I can’t” he replied, “But I did what I did in good faith, and I have to leave the mystery of why they did not kill me too with God to explain in heaven.”
So HTS is not Islamic state. Nor are they anything like the Taliban 2.0, who according to sources in Afghanistan are “ten times worse” than the previous Taliban regime. Said BBC international correspondent Lyse Doucet, “For the sake of a better world, we must find out in Syria if Islamists can ever embrace pluralism!” What are the chances?
On the plus side, HTS can’t run Syria by themselves. They are too small. They need allies and they need the expertise of incumbents even from Assad’s government. Also, Syria is bankrupt, and getting back on its feet will depend on how well the new regime accesses foreign funding, who are not likely to support a hard-line Islamist government. Finally, the leaders of HTS have been careful to make a reasonable start, especially in their language, calling for (a) no retribution, (b) respect all state minorities and (c) seeking governance for the benefit of all citizens. Christian leaders in Aleppo met HTS leaders and were assured that they could keep running their co-ed schools.
Yet there are concerns. The interim government announced is composed of Sunni Arabs most of whom have Islamist leanings. A chance was surely missed to appoint someone from a minority even if just for symbolic benefit. It is also to be recalled that the regime in Idlib was still rather authoritarian. Regimes lining up to finance the new Syria are states like Qatar, who hardly tie aid to the promotion of democracy.
There is one feature more than any other that may weight here—there is no precedent for Islamists ever building democracy. In Freedom House’s latest lists of countries that are categorized “free,” not a single Muslim majority country is to be found. Almost all are Christian majority. That’s devastating.
Still, Middle East Christians have learned to do “hope” in the face of devastating odds. Two great opportunities present themselves. Syria’s Christian population is probably about 300,000, but there may be half a million alone in Lebanon, and quite a number in Turkey too. They will soon surge back into the country. They must be helped to rebuild their homes, and as they do, rebuild a new Syria. The second opportunity is for Western states to rebuild a nation that will no longer be an Iranian puppet. Syria will not make it without their engagement. There’s an inviting void. The last year has seen the malign influence of Iran severely curbed, as its three proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria—have been degraded. Russia too has seen its influence reduced. This is not the time to say, “Its someone else’s problem”. Syria matters for the region. Now is the time to fill this void. Another time to influence like this may not come again.
Despite their joy, Syrian Christians have been through too much to be naïve. Said a bishop in Aleppo,
“We’ll keep hope alive, but we’ll keep our bags packed too – maybe that’s the way Christians are always supposed to live.” He also said, wisely, “When you are persecuted, you learn to think in centuries – we become very patient, and attuned to God’s timing, not ours.”