International Institute for Religious Freedom

Subnational Divergence in Religious Freedom

IIRF Reports Vol. 15 – 2026/14: A Variance-Based Approach to Democratisation in Latin America

This study assesses the extent to which national-level indices of freedom of religion or belief (FoRB) fail to capture subnational variation in FoRB-related violence in Latin America. Drawing on the Violent Incidents Database, which documents state and non-state FoRB-related violence from 2017 to 2024, we compare these empirical events with national-level indices such as Pew’s Government Restrictions Index, the Social Hostilities Index, and V-Dem’s religious freedom measure. These national-level indicators tend to report Latin American countries as relatively free in terms of religious rights, but do not capture substantial temporal and subnational divergence in FoRB violations, particularly in federal states, remote territories, and indigenous autonomy zones. We suggest that democratic erosion and FoRB repression in Latin America frequently occur unevenly and remain undetected by national scores, calling for more granular approaches to democratic assessment.

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